Japanese Yen Monthly TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Friday, Mar 06, 2009
the following report has attracted my attention as i have been looking yen closely and felt the research work got good content and even better technical hand on charts. enjoy and see if this is what makes sense and prove to be the right.. you can get regular report free of cost on www.gtltrading.com website by subscribing
It was a tough month for the Yen, which depreciated against the all major currencies. Through the month, it fell heavily from the high of 0.011288 (3rd Feb) to the low of .010031 (5th March). In February, Yen was moving in waves forming an M pattern, which indicated a bearish trend. Overall, the Yen lost about lost about 11% over the trailing 1 month period. A fall in GDP numbers along with nearly every other economic indicator turned sour, including Housing starts (-12.9%) , industrial production (-10%) and GDP (10.9%)
February saw a lot of volatility as the Bollinger bands widened significantly and the Average True Range (ATR) indicator was down. After forming a Doji star candlestick, the uptrend from previous months took a decisive downward turn. In the first two weeks, volumes were very low and the price was in a consolidation phase. It picked up speed after breaking the support level at .011002. OBV was also very low in mid-Jan through the beginning of February, on account of traders making longs heavily, after which there was no scope left for upward movement and the pair stopped moving up around the high at .011418. Momentum was negative and the Fibonacci level, which provides the main support levels at .011001, .010527, .010263 and .010081.
The Yen now looks a bit stable around .010194, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. From here the next resistance level at.010368, which is likely break over the next couple of days, after which, the next target level is .010527, which offers strong potential for bulls to participate in the rally. Traders can expect upside from the Yen over the next month, as the momentum has now turned positive again and both Aroon indicators are signaling light at the end of the tunnel. Bulls can expect to stay active in the coming weeks as the Yen should break the 5 day EMA over a week or so, which will lead to substantial upside potential upto the 61.8% Fibonacci level which - 0.010721. posted by Fahim Rashid
It was a tough month for the Yen, which depreciated against the all major currencies. Through the month, it fell heavily from the high of 0.011288 (3rd Feb) to the low of .010031 (5th March). In February, Yen was moving in waves forming an M pattern, which indicated a bearish trend. Overall, the Yen lost about lost about 11% over the trailing 1 month period. A fall in GDP numbers along with nearly every other economic indicator turned sour, including Housing starts (-12.9%) , industrial production (-10%) and GDP (10.9%)
February saw a lot of volatility as the Bollinger bands widened significantly and the Average True Range (ATR) indicator was down. After forming a Doji star candlestick, the uptrend from previous months took a decisive downward turn. In the first two weeks, volumes were very low and the price was in a consolidation phase. It picked up speed after breaking the support level at .011002. OBV was also very low in mid-Jan through the beginning of February, on account of traders making longs heavily, after which there was no scope left for upward movement and the pair stopped moving up around the high at .011418. Momentum was negative and the Fibonacci level, which provides the main support levels at .011001, .010527, .010263 and .010081.
The Yen now looks a bit stable around .010194, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. From here the next resistance level at.010368, which is likely break over the next couple of days, after which, the next target level is .010527, which offers strong potential for bulls to participate in the rally. Traders can expect upside from the Yen over the next month, as the momentum has now turned positive again and both Aroon indicators are signaling light at the end of the tunnel. Bulls can expect to stay active in the coming weeks as the Yen should break the 5 day EMA over a week or so, which will lead to substantial upside potential upto the 61.8% Fibonacci level which - 0.010721. posted by Fahim Rashid
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